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Could I make money by trading the exchanges like Jinxy1?

19/05/2012 15:56

 

Like a lot of people I followed Jinxy on the Betfair forum for a long time and followed his progress with real interest. I've tried get rich quick tipsters and the like over the years and one day realised that there was no such thing as a get rich quick scheme. 

 

After following Jinxys blog for around 6 months I took the plunge and began to trade his selections. It was good. For the first time ever I was actually seeing my Betfair account increase, not by huge amounts but steady away...that will do for me any day of the week.

 

I know that the prices Jinxy sends us in the emails are just as a guide and we have to decide our selves when the time is right to take the exact price that we will trade from, that is where I've learnt and am still learning to use the ladder interface on Gruss (as Jinxy tells us to to be fair), its a great tool and I'm improving all the time.

 

We all know that Jinxy's service went private. Thats where my problems started. I thought that because I was paying for something that I should treble my stakes and be more ambitious etc etc, you will have heard it all before I'm sure. It didnt work like that, during February I made a small amount, March also, April made me a bit more and May, half way through May I was struggling as I was happy with steady but wasnt really making enough to justify paying out £420 for the service.

 

Mid May 2012 and I went back to basics. Jinxy's original threads were all about making around 30% per trade, I went back to that. Then I looked through the Strategy Page again on the website at Jinxystradingpost.com. Did the penny drop? Not straight away it didnt, I looked at that damn Strategy Page for two days before the penny finally dropped. I think that the Jinxy way was to first try and make upwards of 25% all green profit pre race, if you could take it, then take it without going in running, as he says, its free money. So thats where I started to develop my own strategy. It was ging to be this:

 

1. Try and make 30% pre race if possible, if it was possible then take it and then close.  My stake would be £100 to try and make £30 before or after commission. £100 win bet followed by £131.50 lay off bet

2. If I couldnt get 30% pre race then I would have to go in running to get my trade. But I would adjust my lay off stake for the in running trade to £117, strange you might think? That would only make me £16.15 if the trade was successful? Yes but the percentage of trades that would be successful trying to make just £16.25  would be very high. Its the next bit that I like.

3. I reckoned that around 18% of Jinxys trades go on to win their race, so although I would just be looking to make £16.15 for an in running trade that amount would be much higher when the horse went on to win.  As an example.

a) Backed at 16 for £100

b) Lay at 12.5, not a lot to ask there is there? and if the horse wins you will get your win bonus of £147 or so after commission. If it doesnt win then you will still get your £16.25 if matched of course.

Sometimes its easy to get the wrong price which is always a worry. If I'm confident then I will take the new price and then lay off the original price for the original stake and then attempt my trade in the normal way. If of course it doesnt reach the original price then I'll lose twice, hasnt happened yet though.

 

Well, that is my new strategy and I'm going for it. Although I will not bet in every race, especially I will leave alone the onew where there is an odds on favourite, simply because if the fav is travelling well and wins then I think its difficult for much else to trade for serious money. Just my opinion. 

 

I will update the website when I can without spending too much time on it that is. I will put up how many selectiosn there are each day and the prices attatched, I wont of course mention the nmaes of the selections until I update the results after the days racing. I wont spend too much time on the site so forgive me the odd howler. 

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